The Benefits of REAL Scenario Planning
We are increasingly seeing organizations creating a few slightly varied forecasts of their future workforce and calling this “scenario planning” – but it isn’t really scenario planning at all. This type of variable forecasting is based on a viewpoint from the present, trying to predict what might happen in the future. Real scenario planning, on the other hand, uses tools to establish a viewpoint from the future, and explore how the company is successful if certain combinations of variables occur – which usually produces a profoundly different outcome, and a much higher degree of engagement and ownership from the business. This future based work (real scenario planning!) is both more powerful and more simple than the forecasting approach.
Some of the benefits of scenario planning include:
* Provides an analytical framework and process for analyzing complex issues and responding to change
* Decision makers are better able to recognize a scenario in its early stages, should it actually be one that unfolds – and be prepared for it
* Managers are forced to break out of their standard world view, exposing blind spots that might otherwise be overlooked in the generally accepted forecast
* Managers are better able to understand the source of disagreements that often occur when they are envisioning different scenarios without realizing it
Unfortunately, presenting a few slightly different forecasts won’t realize these benefits, and will cause you many more headaches on the way! Next month we’ll describe in detail how you can lead your business in real scenario planning, but if you’d like to know more, read the whitepapers in our workforce planning knowledge center, or contact us.
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