Ideas
from Chicago: Reliable vs Valid Outcomes
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Tess Walton - My
Aruspex co-founder Stacy is in the US at the moment and attended the Human
Capital Institute's inaugural conference in Chicago. There have been some very
interesting presentations, so over the next few editions we'll be sharing some
of the insights from the presenters there - a great range of top academics,
authors and executives in human capital.
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Roger Martin is the Dean
of the Rotman School of Management in Toronto (and the author of "The
Responsibility Virus"). His current focus is on the value of design in business
- and of course designing your future workforce is a key part of workforce
planning. Martin raised very interesting insights on decisions which are
reliable, compared to those which are valid. The attributes of these two types
are listed below:
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Reliability
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Validity
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Consistent, replicable outcomes
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Outcomes that meet objectives
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Substantiation based on past data
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Substantiation based on future events
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Limited number of objective variables
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Broad number of diverse variables
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Minimisation of judgement
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Integration of judgement
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Avoidance of the possibility of bias
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Acknowledgement of the reality of bias
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Martin does not claim that each are mutually
exclusive, but rather that your business decisions will be based on information
somewhere along a continuum of the two, and that there is a fundamental tension
between them. Each has value in particular situations, but the more that your
outcome is towards design or the future, the more you should focus on ensuring
your outcome has Validity, because Reliability might not be possible.
Critically, Martin points out that because there is little data on emergent
situations, relying on validity may be the only way to come to your decision in
those cases.
Because many of the issues you are addressing in your
workforce plans are emerging now, or have not appeared at all yet in data,
seeking Validity more than Reliability in your decisions is usually the best
way. Don't require that your workforce
plans can be proven reliably and replicably by using historic data and avoiding
bias; rather, focus on making them valid for your future business outcomes by
using diverse variables and your own judgement.
If you need a framework and tools that enable you to
create valid workforce plans for your future organisational success, you can
attend one of our
Strategic Workforce Planning Workshops
in Sydney in April (or other cities later this year), or
contact us
for an obligation free conversation about your workforce planning needs.
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The Migration
Occupations in Demand List (MODL) has been extended to 16 additional trade
occupations as being in national demand, so it seems like a good time to review
how to use this list in your workforce planning. Foreigners applying for
skilled migration receive extra points for having one of the listed
occupations, and more if they have an Australian employer ready to hire them -
but even if you do not employ migrants, the MODL is a strong indicator of
skills trends in Australia.
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MODL is reviewed twice a year, although it is not
always changed. A major change such as this one (extended by 16) indicates
strong changes in the local labour force
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Be sure to check the list each time it is reviewed,
and see if any of your own current or future important skill groups have been
added to or removed from the list - you need to take workforce planning actions
if they do
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Know the rules for skilled migration if you use any
of the MODL occupations - you have advantages should you need to import
critical parts of your workforce, especially if you are from a rural or
regional area
The latest list (28
March 2006) lists over 30 types of professional, one para-professional and more
than 40 trades in short supply in Australia which qualify as MODL. How many of
them does your organisation need?
View
the List
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Thought
for the Month
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| "The
best time to plant a tree is twenty years ago. The second best time is now"
Proverb
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| Get the skills you need
at the Strategic Workforce Planning 2 Day
Workshop in Sydney, June 4/5 |
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When
social issues become strategic
- Companies must look for signs of emerging hot topics, be ready to respond to
them early if the social and political landscape shifts. McKinsey
New
committee to advise govt on skills
- the National Industry Skills Committee will advise ministers on workforce
planning, future training and other skills shortage issue. The Age
16
occupations added to MODL list
- The Migration Occupations in Demand List (MODL) has been extended to 16
additional trade occupations as being in national demand CCH
Managing
the Brain Drain - The
brain drain is not a curse that needs to be prevented, but may provide a great
benefit for Australian firms - HR Mag
Unemployment
at 30-year low -
Australia's jobless rate falls to 5 per cent on the back of
higher-than-expected jobs growth. The Age
Employee
earnings up 5% -
Employees were earning on average $798 per week in August 2005, according to
the ABS - a 5% increase since the previous year. CCH
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In
our next issue...
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The Flight of the
Creative Class - We'll be showing you how Dr Richard Florida's work on
the creative class can be used in your workforce plans
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